Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 2017-10-18
http://www.hzg.de/030738/index_0030738.html.en

Dissemination

IMPACT2C web-atlas

Interactive web-atlas shows the impacts of a 2°C global warming on various European sectors and some key vulnerable regions outside Europe

The IMPACT2C web-atlas

Welcome to the second issue of the IMPACT2C newsletter

Cross sectoral regional climate impact information are getting more and more important as several activities financed by the European Commission demonstrate. Regional information on climate, vulnerability and adaptation strategies are also major topics of IPCC and CORDEX. Thereby, the stakeholder dialogue is improving and is also in the beginning of being a fully established part in upcoming EU-Projects. IMPACT2C is therefore a prototype project and fully “State Of the Art”. Many grateful thanks to all of the IMPACT2C members for their great jobs and activity within IMPACT2C.

Within this second IMPACT2C newsletter, we present ongoing work within our manifold working topics. It contains a report on the work using the Euro-CORDEX data, introduces the method of ecosystem modelling and discusses the impacts of climate change on food security in Africa. A more extensive effort is taken into account focusing on climate simulation for small Islands. Last but not least, as IMPACT2C was introduced at COP 19, you will also find information on the policy brief activity.

Best wishes,
Dr. Daniela Jacob
(Project Coordinator)

Impact2C Newsletter No 1

Impact2C Newsletter No 2

Policy Update on 2°C Warming

These notes provide the summary of the initial findings of the project and discuss key questions that are relevant in the context of the 2°C goal.

Analysis of early IMPACT2C climate modelling results


IMPACT2C modelling results: climate change and sea-level rise from a 2°C climate


IMPACT2C modelling results for a 2°C climate for key global vulnerable regions

List of publications in peer-reviewed journals

Climate Scenarios for impact studies

Mendlik, T., Gobiet, A., (2015) Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change, Climatic Change, Volume 135, Issue 3–4, pp 381–393, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1582-0

We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity

Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., Van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., Yiou, P. (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Regional Environmental Change, Volume 14, Issue 2, pp 563–578

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation

Strandberg, G., Bärring, L., Hansson, U., Jansson, C., Jones, C., Kjellström, E., Kolax, M., Kupiainen, M., Nikulin, G., Samuelsson, P., Ullerstig, A., Wang, S. (2014) CORDEX scenarios for Europe from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, SMHI REPORT METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY No. 116, 2014

documents Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate model simulations at 50 km horizontal resolution over Europe with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) for i) a ERA-Interim-driven (ERAINT) simulation used to evaluate model performance in the recent past climate

Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Sobolowski, S., Kjellström, E., Stegehuis, A., Watkiss, P., Mendlik, T., Landgren, O., Nikulin, G., Teichmann, C., Jacob, D. (2014) The European climate under a 2 °C global warming, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 9, Number 3

Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble.

Wilcke, R.A.I., Mendlik, T. & Gobiet, A., (2013): Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models. Climatic Change, Volume 120, Issue 4, pp 871-887, doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0845-x

Climate change impact research needs regional climate scenarios of multiple meteorological variables. Those variables are available from regional climate models (RCMs), but affected by considerable biases. We evaluate the application of an empirical-statistical error correction method, quantile mapping (QM), for a small ensemble of RCMs and six meteorological variables.

Adloff, F., Somot, S., Sevault, F., Jordà, G., Aznar, R., Déqué, M., Herrmann, M., Marcos, M., Dubois, C., Padorno, E., Alvarez-Fanjul, E., Gomis, D. (2015): Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios, Climate Dynamics , Volume 45, Issue 9–10, pp 2775–2802

To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea.

Gobiet, A., Suklitsch, M., and Heinrich, G.: The effect of empirical-statistical correction of intensity-dependent model errors on the temperature climate change signal, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4055-4066, 2015

This study discusses the effect of empirical-statistical bias correction methods like quantile mapping (QM) on the temperature change signals of climate simulations.

Impacts of +2oC global warming on the Environment

Donnelly, C., Greuell, W., Andersson, J., Gerten, D., Pisacane, G., Roudier, P., & Ludwig, F. (2017). Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level. Climatic Change, 1-14.

Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe

Roudier, P., Andersson, J. C., Donnelly, C., Feyen, L., Greuell, W., & Ludwig, F. (2016). Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a+ 2 C global warming. Climatic change, 135(2), 341-355.

We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models.

Papadimitriou, L. V., Koutroulis, A. G., Grillakis, M. G., & Tsanis, I. K. (2016). High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows-exploring the effects of forcing biases. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(5), 1785

Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2◦C versus +4◦C global warming was investigated

Fortems-Cheiney, A., G. Foret, G. Siour, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, G. Dufour, A. Colette, G. Lacressonniere and M. Beekmann, 2017 : A 3°C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory annihilates the benefits of European emission reductions on air quality. Nature Communications, in press.

Avoided impacts of 2 vs 3 degrees in air pollution

Maule, C. F., Mendlik, T., Christensen, O. B. (2016). The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe. Climate Services.

The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level.

Lacressonnière, G. L. Watson, Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Andersson, M. Beekmann, A. Colette, G. Foret, B. Josse, V. Marécal, A. Nyiri, G. Siour, S. Sobolowski and R. Vautard (2017). Particulate matter air pollution in a +2°C warming world. Atmos. Environ., 154, 129-140.

We evaluated the impacts of meteorological forcings upon chemistry transport models. Impacts of emissions and +2 °C climate change upon particulate matter were studied. Changes due to a +2 °C warming alone are robustly predicted despite a weak signal.

Watson, L., G. Lacressonnière, M. Gauss, M. Engardt, C. Andersson, B. Josse, V. Marécal, A. Nyiri, S. Sobolowski, G. Siour and R. Vautard, 2016: The impact of emissions and +2°C climate change upon future ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe. Atmos. Environ,142, 271-285

Impacts on ozone

Lacressonnière G, Foret G, Beekmann M, Siour G, Engardt M., Gauss M, Watson L, Andersson C ,Colette A, Josse B, Marécal V, Nyiri A., Vautard R., 2016, Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties, Climatic change, 136(2), 309-324

Uncertainties on PM and O3

Koutroulis, A.G., Grillakis, M.G., Daliakopoulos, I.N., Tsanis, I.K., Jacob, D. (2015), Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 532, January 2016, Pages 16-28

generalized cross-sectoral framework to assess the impact of climatic and socioeconomic futures on the water resources of an Eastern Mediterranean island

Brown, S., Nicholls, R.J. (2015) Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna, In Science of The Total Environment, Volumes 527–528, 15 September 2015, Pages 362-374

For the highly populated Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, a large range of net subsidence rates are described in the literature, yet the reasons behind this wide range of values are poorly understood. This paper documents and analyses rates of subsidence (for publications until 2014) and relates these findings to human influences (development

Khabarov N., Krasovskii A., Obersteiner M., Swart R., Dosio A., San-Miguel-Ayanz J., Durrant T., Camia A., Migliavacca M. (2014) Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe,Regional Environmental Change, Volume 16, Issue 1, pp 21–30

quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change

Koutroulis, A. G., Tsanis, I. K., Daliakopoulos, I. N., Jacob, D. (2013): Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 479, 4 February 2013, Pages 146-158

Analysis and assessment of water resources availability, during the 21st century. 24 Scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime, demand and supply potential. A robust signal of water scarcity is projected for all scenarios. Climate change plays an equally important role to water use and management. Necessity of improving and updating local strategic water management planning.

Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Woodroffe, C. D., Hanson, S., Hinkel, J., Kebede, A. S., Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T. (2012) Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Responses: A Global Perspective, Coastal Hazards pp 117-149

Investigated the impacts of sea-level rise at a global scale on: (1) Sandy environments; (2) Wetlands and low-lying coasts; (3) Built environments; and (4) Energy and transport systems.

Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Jacob, D., Belda, M., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Fernández, J., Garcı́a-Dı́ez, M., Goergen, K., Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Karacostas, T., Katragkou, E., Keuler, K., Kotlarski, S., Mayer, S., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Patarčić, M., Scinocca, J., Sobolowski, S., Suklitsch, M., Teichmann, C., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., Yiou, P. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013, DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated.

Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tole, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., Levermann, A. (2013) Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise

Coastal flood damages are expected to increase significantly during the 21st century as sea levels rise and socioeconomic development increases the number of people and value of assets in the coastal floodplain. Estimates of future damages and adaptation costs are essential for supporting efforts to reduce emissions driving sea-level rise as well as for designing strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk. This paper presents such estimates derived by taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in socioeconomic development, sea-level rise, continental topography data, population data, and adaptation strategies

Aich, V., Liersch, S., Vetter, T., Andersson, J. C. M., Müller, E. N., Hattermann, F. F. (2015) Climate or Land Use?—Attribution of Changes in River Flooding in the Sahel Zone. Water 2015, 7(6), 2796-2820; doi:10.3390/w7062796

This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel.

Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Surminski, S., Williges, K. (2014) Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes, Nature Climate Change 4, 235–237

Truly understanding climate-related disaster risk, and the management of that risk, can inform effective action on climate adaptation and the loss and damage mechanism, the main vehicle under the UN Climate Convention for dealing with climate-related effects, including residual impacts after adaptation.

Impacts of +2oC global warming on the Economic sectors

Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., & Tsanis, I. K. (2016). The 2° C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices. International journal of biometeorology, 60(8), 1205-1215.

The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed.

Damm, A., Greuell, W., Landgren, O., & Prettenthaler, F. (2016). Impacts of+ 2 C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe. Climate Services.

In this study the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe’s ski tourism related NUTS-3 regions are quantified.

Tobin, I., Jerez, S., Vautard, R., Thais, F., Déqué, M., Kotlarski, S., Fox Maule, C., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Noel, T., Prein, A., Teichmann, C., 2016: Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario. Environ. Res. Lett., 11(3), 034013.

Impacts on wind power

Jerez, S., I. Tobin, R. Vautard, J. P. Montávez, J. M. López-Romero, F. Thais, B. Bartok, O. B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, S. Kotlarski, E. van Meijgaard, C. Teichmann, and M. Wild, 2015: The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms10014.

Impact on solar PV – not specifically for 2/3 degree

Uzzaman, A., Mamnun, N., Islam, S., Dilshad, T., Syed, A., (2015) Evaluation of Adaptation Practices in the Agriculture Sector of Bangladesh: An Ecosystem Based Assessment, Climate 2016, 4(1), 11; doi:10.3390/cli4010011

identify, prioritize and evaluate the adaptation options in the agriculture of different ecosystems of Bangladesh

Balkovič, J., van der Velde, M., Skalský, R., Xiong, W., Folbertha, C., Khabarov, N., Smirnov, A., Mueller, N. D., Obersteiner, M. (2013) Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways, Global and Planetary Change Volume 122, November 2014, Pages 107-121

comprehensive global evaluation of future wheat yields and production under distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agro-ecosystem model

van Vliet, M. T. H., Yearsley, J. R., Ludwig, F., Vögele, S., Lettenmaier, D. P., Kabat, P. (2012) Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change, Nature Climate Change, 2, 676–681

Show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3–19% in Europe and 4.4–16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031–2060.

Leclère, D., Havlík, P., Fuss, S., Schmid, E., Mosnier, A., Walsh, B., Valin, H., Herrero, M., Khabarov, N., Obersteiner, M. (2014), Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 9, Number 12

It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making.

Tobin, I., Vautard, R., Balog, I., Bréon, F.-M., Jerez, S., Ruti, P. M., Thais, F., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2014) Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections, Climatic Change, Volume 128, Issue 1–2, pp 99–112

This study aims at assessing future changes in the potential for wind power generation over the whole Europe and in the effective wind power production from national wind farms operating at the end of 2012 and planned by 2020.

Vautard, R., Thais, F., Tobin, I., Bréon, F.-M., Devezeaux de Lavergne, J.-G., Colette, A., Yiou, P., Ruti, P. M. (2014) Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms, Nature Communications (2014)

simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies

Ponti, L., Gutierrez, A. P., Ruti, P. M., Dell’Aquila, A. (2013) Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers,

Inability to determine reliably the direction and magnitude of change in natural and agro-ecosystems due to climate change poses considerable challenge to their management. Olive is an ancient ubiquitous crop having considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance in the Mediterranean Basin. We assess the ecological and economic impact of projected 1.8 °C climate warming on olive and its obligate pest, the olive fly. This level of climate warming will have varying impact on olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Mediterranean Basin, and result in economic winners and losers. The analysis predicts areas of decreased profitability that will increase the risk of abandonment of small farms in marginal areas critical to soil and biodiversity conservation and to fire risk reduction.

Watkiss, P., Hunt, A., Blyth, W., Dyszynski, J. (2015) The use of new economic decision support tools for adaptation assessment: A review of methods and applications, towards guidance on applicability, Climatic Change, Volume 132, Issue 3, pp 401–416

provides a critical review and assessment of existing economic decision support tools (cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis) an uncertainty framework (iterative risk management) and alternative tools that more fully incorporate uncertainty (real options analysis, robust decision making and portfolio analysis). summarises each method, provides examples, and assesses their strengths and weaknesses for adaptation

General Information

How 2 degree mean global warming will affect Europe

ScienceShot: More Olives in a Warming World (based on the results of IMPACT2C)