Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 2017-06-26
http://www.hzg.de/030639/index_0030639.html.en

Vulnerability, risks and adaptive capacity: water, energy, tourism and infrastructure

Main objectives

In addition to impacts and costs modeling of a global mean temperature increase of 2°C in WP6, this WP follows a purely risk oriented approach for the same sectors by generating established risk indicators such as Value at Risk (VaR). On the basis of a comprehensive damage data collection, by using advanced methods from actual science the results will be designed to maximize their usability for national and EU-wide risk transfer mechanisms and insurance. This focus on adaptive capacity as the EU’s societies’ capacity to financially manage the risks from climate change requires the employed risk measures to be compatible with current EU legislation, such as the SOLVENCY II (regulatory requirements for insurance firms) process. Also the concept of vulnerability in this WP necessarily deviates from that usually utilized and operationalised in climate impact studies, since it has to be compatible with the insurance perspective and strictly quantitative.

This WP will provide a sound scientific approach for estimating weather and climate risks and quantify the change in risk due to the changing climate signal by the above mentioned risk metrics. Bringing together state of the art techniques from stochastic weather index modeling, climate impact research and actual modeling of random phenomena, both aspects of risk (probability and impact) are assessed simultaneously.

Specific objectives
1. Determining the value of building infrastructure in EU 27 (27 EU Member States).
2. Determining the Value at Risk from Floods in EU 27 in conformity to Solvency SOLVENCY II .
3. Quantify the change of weather risk to electricity demand due to a change in the climate signal (2°C) for continental Europe.
4. Quantify the change of weather risk to demand for beach oriented summer tourism and snow oriented winter tourism due to a change in the climate signal (2°C) for tourism intensive NUTS III regions in EU 27.
5. Recommend reform steps for the financial risk transfer mechanism currently in place to increase adaptive capacity in EU 27.

Participants

JR (lead)
HZG, MET.NO, UniGraz, WU, TUC, UNIL

The impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

We quantify the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe’s ski tourism related regions. Using time series regression models the relationship between natural snow conditions and monthly overnight stays is estimated. Based on these model results we quantify the risk of tourism demand losses due to weather variability and assess the potential impacts of climate change. Hereby, the concept of Weather-Value at Risk (Weather-VaR [α]) is applied, which represents for a given level of confidence (α) over a given period of time the maximum expected loss in winter overnight stays. Snow data are provided by the hydrological model VIC, which is forced by E-OBS data to obtain historical snow values for tourism model calibration and forced by EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to obtain snow projections until 2100.

Figure 1: Aggregated Weather-Value at Risk (0.95) of winter overnight stays for all considered NUTS-3 regions in Europe. Error bars show the range of climate simulations (2 RCP2.6, 5 RCP4.5, and 4 RCP8.5). For RCP4.5 the impact of underlying Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1 to 3) is shown in the different bars. For RCP2.6 simulations SSP1 and for RCP8.5 SSP3 is used. Figure 1: Aggregated Weather-Value at Risk (0.95) of winter overnight stays for all considered NUTS-3 regions in Europe. Error bars show the range of climate simulations (2 RCP2.6, 5 RCP4.5, and 4 RCP8.5). For RCP4.5 the impact of underlying Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1 to 3) is shown in the different bars. For RCP2.6 simulations SSP1 and for RCP8.5 SSP3 is used.

Figure 1 shows the aggregated Weather-VaR (0.95) of winter overnight stays for all considered NUTS-3 regions in Europe. Under +2 °C warming the weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays related to skiing tourism in Europe amounts up to 10.1 million nights per winter season (not exceeded with a probability of 95 %), which is +7.3 million overnight stays additionally at risk compared to the reference period (1971-2000). Among the four ‘big players’ of European skiing tourism – Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland –, France and Switzerland show the lowest increase in risk of losses in winter overnight stays. The highest weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays – in the reference period as well as in the +2 °C scenarios – is found in Austria followed by Italy. These two countries account for the largest fraction of winter overnight stays in skiing related NUTS-3 regions.

Deliverables

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