Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 2018-01-24

Uncertainties in climate change: impact assessment, decision making and guidance

To enable integrated (climate – impact – cost) assessment of uncertainty in the sectorial climate change impact projections of IMPACT2C (see WPs 7,10,11,14,15,16,17, 8, 9,14,15,16,17, 12, 13, 14). To achieve this objective, climate change uncertainty will be studied in detail and a methodological framework for integrated uncertainty assessment will be established and adapted to the various sectorial applications.
- to enable cross-sectorial synthesis of the sectorial results. To achieve this objective, a reduced subset of the climate scenarios from WP2 and WP3 will defined, which is sufficiently small to be handled by any sectorial impact study on the one hand, and still features sufficient spread to realistically cover climate change uncertainty on the other hand. This common mandatory set of climate drivers will enable cross-sectorial synthesis of the IMPACT2C results (see WP11).
- to develop a method and guidance for integrating decision making under uncertainty within the project, to inform the impacts tasks and subsequent identification and assessment of adaptation options.

To develop method guidance for the impact assessments at the pan-European sectoral level, especially on the combination of climate and socio-economic scenarios, the reporting of results and the analysis of economic costs. It will also develop consistent socio-economic data sets for input to the sector impact assessment, that are internally self consistent. Finally, it will also identify potential cross-sectoral linkages between the impact sectors to link the sectoral analysis together.


HZG (lead)
PIK, SMHI, ENEA, UniGraz, JR, IIASA, DMI, WU, TUC, PWA, UNIL, SEI-Oxford, MetOffice