Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 2018-01-24

Providing climate scenarios for Europe

The objectives of this work packages are:

The main objective of this work package is to provide climate scenarios for Europe at the time when the global mean temperature is simulated to be 2ºC (1.5ºC) above its preindustrial level. These scenarios will serve as input for the impact studies. This objective is broken down into the following four specific objectives:

Analysis of robust regional climate change patterns at the time when the global temperature exceeds the preindustrial level by 2°C (1.5°C) in a wide range of different scenarios.
Provision of new CORDEX-type regional ~10km resolution climate scenarios by downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations under the ENSEMBLES-E1 stabilization scenario and/or under the new RCP-scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways).
Provision of new high-resolution (~30km) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) transient 30-year time slice scenarios centred on the time when the global temperature exceeds the preindustrial level by 2°C (1.5°C).
Downscaling of the high-resolution AGCM scenarios to ~5km resolution.


SMHI (lead)
HZG, UniRes, MET.NO, ENEA, CNRS-IPSL, MeteoF, DMI, KNMI, Met Office


WP Lead Title Due Date
WP2 CNRS-IPSL D2.1. Identification of robust climate change patterns in pre-existing scenarios for Europe 30/09/2012
WP2 SMHI D2.2. Climate change information and the creation of an online data Archive 30/09/2013