Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 2015-08-29


Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming

General Information

Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C demands that discussions are informed by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits. IMPACT2C enhances knowledge, quantifies climate change impacts, and adopts a clear and logical structure, with climate and impacts modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs, as well as potential responses, within a pan-European sector based analysis.

IMPACT2C utilises a range of models within a multi-disciplinary international expert team and assesses effects on water, energy, infrastructure, coasts, tourism, forestry, agriculture, ecosystems services, and health and air quality-climate interactions.

IMPACT2C introduces key innovations.
First, harmonised socio-economic assumptions/scenarios will be used, to ensure that both individual and cross-sector assessments are aligned to the 2°C (1.5°C) scenario for both impacts and adaptation, e.g. in relation to land-use pressures between agriculture and forestry.
Second, it has a core theme of uncertainty, and will develop a methodological framework integrating the uncertainties within and across the different sectors, in a consistent way. In so doing, analysis of adaptation responses under uncertainty will be enhanced.
Finally, a cross-sectoral perspective is adopted to complement the sector analysis. A number of case studies will be developed for particularly vulnerable areas, subject to multiple impacts (e.g. the Mediterranean), with the focus being on cross-sectoral interactions (e.g. land use competition) and cross-cutting themes (e.g. cities). The project also assesses climate change impacts in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins), and the Maldives.

IMPACT2C integrates and synthesises project findings suitable for awareness raising and are readily communicable to a wide audience, and relevant for policy negotiations.

IMPACT2C at the Paris conference "Our Common Future under Climate Change"

The conference Website

Parallel Session: "Multi-sectoral analysis of risks to climate change (hot spots) at 2 °C warming"

Presentation by Daniela Jacob: "Cross-sectoral analysis in IMPACT2C and IPCC AR5 Europe Chapter"

Abstract content

Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, needs to be informed by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits.

Here we’ll provide a recent update of the scientific evidence on which regional changes and associated impacts will be induced by 2 °C global warming.

First, original insights and findings from the FP7 project IMPACT2C will be presented and discussed. IMPACT2C identifies and quantifies the impacts and most appropriate response strategies of a 2oC global warming. IMPACT2C analyses a number of major cross-sectoral issues for Europe and three selected vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins) and the Maldives

The IMPACT2C project adopts a clear and logical structure within climate- and impact-modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs. Detailed climate change scenarios are provided and tailored to the needs of various sectors. Here the information from the new EURO-CORDEX simulations will be presented. Furthermore, selected innovative methods (e.g. ensemble model selection which represent the entire ensemble's spread) and tools (e.g. web atlas) will be shown.

On the pan-European level this research is also linked to the Europe-Chapter from AR5, IPCC, which assesses evidence of climate change in a regional chapter and therefore could describe impacts across sectors and identify interactions between impacts. Regional information on climate, vulnerability and adaptation strategies are also major topics. The cross-sectoral decision making which is required to address climate change is reviewed in the Chapter. The main findings of the Europe chapter of WG II IPCC AR5 will be presented.

This project receives funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007- 2013) under the grant agreement 282746